{"id":3173,"date":"2025-08-25T03:25:09","date_gmt":"2025-08-25T03:25:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/betainvest.ee\/pazar-analizleri\/"},"modified":"2026-04-16T17:57:39","modified_gmt":"2026-04-16T17:57:39","slug":"pazar-analizleri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/betainvest.ee\/tr\/pazar-analizleri\/","title":{"rendered":"Pazar analizleri"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

T\u00fcrkiye: Avrupa-Rusya-Asya G\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar\u0131n\u0131n D\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm Noktas\u0131<\/strong><\/h2>

Ocak 2026 G\u00fcncellemesi<\/p>

1) T\u00fcrkiye-Avrupa ve T\u00fcrkiye-Rusya: tarife mant\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve ta\u015f\u0131ma ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131<\/h3>

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u201cTarifeler\u201d konusunda \u00f6nemli bir not: a\u00e7\u0131k kaynaklarda \u00e7o\u011fu zaman tek bir standart fiyat yay\u0131mlanmaz. Ger\u00e7ekte maliyet yap\u0131s\u0131; ek \u00fccretler, sigorta ko\u015fullar\u0131, transit s\u00fcreleri, \u00fcr\u00fcn k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 ve uyum gereklilikleri \u00fczerinden \u015fekillenir. Bu nedenle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma, sonradan m\u00fc\u015fteriye \u201cneden rakam de\u011fi\u015fti\u201d a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 yapmak zorunda kalmamak i\u00e7in, \u201ct\u0131r ba\u015f\u0131na X euro\u201d gibi basitle\u015ftirilmi\u015f fiyatlardan \u00e7ok maliyet yap\u0131s\u0131 ve risk profiline<\/b><\/span> odaklanmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye \u2192 Avrupa (AB \/ Avrupa)<\/h3>

Bu hatt\u0131 genellikle daha \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir k\u0131lan unsurlar:<\/p>

Belgeler, prosed\u00fcrler ve altyap\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan daha standartla\u015fm\u0131\u015f gereklilikler.<\/p>

Buna ra\u011fmen rota; AB talebine, mevsimselli\u011fe ve limanlar ile s\u0131n\u0131r kap\u0131lar\u0131ndaki darbo\u011fazlara kar\u015f\u0131 hassast\u0131r.<\/p>

Akdeniz\u2019deki denizyolu aya\u011f\u0131<\/h4>

2023-2024 d\u00f6neminde navlunlarda g\u00f6r\u00fclen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dalgalanmalar\u0131n temel nedenlerinden biri, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz ve S\u00fcvey\u015f hatt\u0131ndaki denizyolu aksakl\u0131klar\u0131yd\u0131. Bu durum, Uzak Do\u011fu-Akdeniz y\u00f6nl\u00fc hatlarda artan fiyatlar ve rota sapmalar\u0131 nedeniyle uzayan ta\u015f\u0131ma mesafeleri \u00fczerinden Akdeniz\u2019i de etkiledi. UNCTAD\u2019a g\u00f6re 2024\u2019te ton-mil cinsinden deniz ticareti art\u0131\u015f\u0131, fiziksel y\u00fck hacmi art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan belirgin \u015fekilde daha y\u00fcksekti; bunun temel nedeni gemilerin daha uzun g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlardan seyretmesiydi. Bu durum navlunlar\u0131, sefer programlar\u0131n\u0131 ve filo eri\u015filebilirli\u011fini do\u011frudan etkiler.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye \u2192 Rusya<\/h3>

Bu hatt\u0131 daha pahal\u0131 ve idari olarak daha karma\u015f\u0131k hale getiren ba\u015fl\u0131ca unsurlar:<\/p>

Bankac\u0131l\u0131k, \u00f6demeler, sigorta ko\u015fullar\u0131, kar\u015f\u0131 taraf incelemesi ve mal\u0131n men\u015fei ile var\u0131\u015f noktas\u0131na ili\u015fkin kontroller nedeniyle uyum s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinin daha belirleyici hale gelmesi.<\/p>

D\u00fczenleyici denetimler ve arac\u0131 zincirleri nedeniyle transit s\u00fcrelerinde daha d\u00fczensiz bir \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilirlik olu\u015fmas\u0131.<\/p>

Bunun bug\u00fcn neden \u00f6nemli oldu\u011fu:<\/p>

OECD, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 i\u015fgalinin ve sonras\u0131ndaki yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n, Avrupa ile \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki Kuzey Koridoru \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lan karasal ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 ciddi bi\u00e7imde zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Trans-Hazar Orta Koridoru\u2019na ilgiyi art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. Eurostat verileri de AB-Rusya ticaretinin yap\u0131sal olarak de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini, AB\u2019nin Rusya\u2019ya ihracat\u0131n\u0131n 2022 ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi ile 2025 d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fi aras\u0131nda %61, ithalat\u0131n\u0131n ise %90 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Bu daha geni\u015f yapt\u0131r\u0131m ortam\u0131, ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k co\u011frafyas\u0131n\u0131 ve risk maliyetini yeniden \u015fekillendirmeye devam ediyor.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

2) Y\u00fck ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc: Karadeniz ve Akdeniz b\u00f6lgeleri<\/h2>

Akdeniz b\u00f6lgesi, T\u00fcrk limanlar\u0131 dahil<\/h3>

Son y\u0131llar\u0131n temel belirleyicisi, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz ve S\u00fcvey\u015f \u00e7evresindeki riskler nedeniyle rotalar\u0131n yeniden d\u00fczenlenmesi oldu. Bu da seyir mesafelerini, maliyetleri ve program oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. UNCTAD, yeniden y\u00f6nlendirilen g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar\u0131n daha uzun yolculuklara ve daha dalgal\u0131 navlun yap\u0131lar\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bi\u00e7imde ortaya koyuyor. UNCTAD\u2019\u0131n 2025 de\u011ferlendirmesine g\u00f6re 2024\u2019te deniz ticareti %2,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc; 2025\u2019te b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin %0,5\u2019e yava\u015flamas\u0131, 2026-2030 d\u00f6neminde ise y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama yakla\u015f\u0131k %2\u2019lik daha dengeli bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekleniyor. Ancak bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, jeoekonomik t\u00fcrb\u00fclans\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir ortamda \u015fekilleniyor.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>

Karadeniz<\/h3>

Temel risk unsuru de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f de\u011fil: sava\u015f, seyr\u00fcsefer ve sigorta ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar ve tah\u0131l ile enerji y\u00fckleri dahil olmak \u00fczere ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n alternatif g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlara kaymas\u0131. UNCTAD, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz ve Karadeniz\u2019deki e\u015fzamanl\u0131 bozulmalar\u0131n ticaret haritalar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden \u015fekillenmesi ve lojistik maliyetlerinin artmas\u0131 riskini beraberinde getirdi\u011fini belirtiyor.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/h3>

3) Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n ve ticaret k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlara etkisi<\/h3>

Sahada, siyasi sloganlardan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak, pratikte \u015fu de\u011fi\u015fiyor:<\/p>

Sigorta ve finansman giderek lojistik maliyetin bir par\u00e7as\u0131 haline geliyor, bazen de belirleyici unsur oluyor.<\/p>

\u201cTemiz\u201d bir tedarik zinciri daha fazla \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor. Yani kar\u015f\u0131 taraf, mal\u0131n men\u015fei, var\u0131\u015f yeri ve \u00fcr\u00fcn grubu; transit s\u00fcresini ve rota se\u00e7imini do\u011frudan etkiliyor.<\/p>

Sonu\u00e7 olarak \u015firketler, daha uzun olsa bile, d\u00fczenleyici riski daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olan g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar\u0131 daha s\u0131k tercih ediyor.<\/p>

Eldeki verilerin g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi:<\/p>

OECD analizi, sava\u015f ve yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n Kuzey Koridoru\u2019nu zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Orta Koridor\u2019a olan ilgiyi art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. Eurostat verileri ise AB-Rusya ticaret ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ciddi bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini ve sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fruluyor.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/h3>

4) T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Asya ile Avrupa aras\u0131nda transit merkez rol\u00fc<\/h3>

T\u00fcrkiye \u00fc\u00e7 ana nedenle g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar\u0131 y\u00f6nlendiren bir merkez rol\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor:<\/p>

Co\u011frafya ve altyap\u0131:<\/b><\/span> Karadeniz ile Akdeniz aras\u0131ndaki ba\u011flant\u0131 ve Kafkasya ile Orta Asya koridorlar\u0131na eri\u015fim.<\/p>

Orta Koridor:<\/b><\/span> Trans-Hazar \/ Orta Koridor, Rusya \u00fczerinden ge\u00e7en hatlara alternatif olarak daha fazla dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. OECD\u2019ye g\u00f6re bu koridor, 2022 sonras\u0131nda Kuzey Koridoru\u2019nun sava\u015f ve yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar nedeniyle zorlanmas\u0131yla yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>

Ba\u011flant\u0131sall\u0131k yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131:<\/b><\/span> D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 belgelerinde, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin do\u011fusunda Divri\u011fi-Kars-G\u00fcrcistan s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 hatt\u0131 boyunca Orta Koridor demiryolu ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n iyile\u015ftirilmesine y\u00f6nelik projeler ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olarak yer al\u0131yor.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>

Bunun piyasa a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan pratik anlam\u0131<\/h3>

T\u00fcrkiye art\u0131k sadece ihracat ve ithalat yapan bir \u00fclke de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda bir g\u00fczerg\u00e2h \u00fclkesi<\/b><\/span> haline geliyor. Bu da \u015fu alanlar\u0131n \u00f6nemini art\u0131r\u0131yor:<\/p>

\u015feffafl\u0131k ve izlenebilirlik sa\u011flayan dijital hizmetler,<\/p>

limanlar, demiryolu hatlar\u0131 ve s\u0131n\u0131r kap\u0131lar\u0131 gibi d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm noktalar\u0131n\u0131n kapasitesi,<\/p>

ve rota \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n yeniden y\u00f6nlendirilebilmesini sa\u011flayan dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k.<\/p>

Bu \u00f6ncelikler, OECD\u2019nin Orta Koridor boyunca dijitalle\u015fme, s\u0131n\u0131r s\u00fcre\u00e7leri, g\u00fcmr\u00fck kapasitesi ve lojistik verimlili\u011fine ili\u015fkin \u00f6nerileriyle de uyumludur.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/h3>

5) G\u00fcven veren k\u0131sa rakamlar blo\u011fu<\/h3>

T\u0130M verilerine g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2025 ihracat\u0131 273,4 milyar dolar<\/b><\/span>a ula\u015ft\u0131 ve bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re %4,5<\/b><\/span> art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stererek yeni bir rekor k\u0131rd\u0131.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>

T\u00dc\u0130K, ayl\u0131k ve k\u00fcm\u00fclatif d\u0131\u015f ticaret g\u00f6stergelerini d\u00fczenli olarak yay\u0131mlamaya devam ediyor. Bu nedenle \u201cbug\u00fcn\u00fcn piyasalar\u0131\u201d tarz\u0131 blog veya sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7eriklerinde g\u00fcvenilir bir referans noktas\u0131 olarak kullan\u0131labiliyor.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>

UNCTAD\u2019\u0131n Review of Maritime Transport 2025<\/i> raporu, 2024\u2019te deniz ticaretinde art\u0131\u015f, 2025\u2019te yava\u015flama beklentisi ve 2026-2030 d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in orta vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, s\u00fcren jeoekonomik yeniden yap\u0131lanma ba\u011flam\u0131nda ortaya koyuyor.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>

Kaynaklar<\/h3>

UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2025 (Overview, PDF)<\/b><\/p>

https:\/\/unctad.org\/system\/files\/official-documen<\/em>t\/rmt2025overview_en.pdf<\/a><\/h6>

UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2025 (Chapter 3, PDF)<\/b><\/p>

https:\/\/unctad.org\/system\/files\/official-document\/rmt2025ch3_en.pdf<\/em><\/a><\/h6>

UNCTAD rapid assessment (Red Sea \/ Black Sea \/ Panama, PDF)<\/b><\/p>

https:\/\/unctad.org\/system\/files\/official-document\/osginf2024d2<\/em>_en.pdf<\/a><\/h6>

OECD\/ITF \u2013 Transport System Resilience (Summary and Conclusions, PDF)<\/b><\/p>

https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/content\/dam\/oecd\/en\/publications\/reports\/2024\/05\/transport-system-resilience_f51c36d9\/d90b86ac-en.pdf<\/a><\/em><\/h6>

T\u0130M \u2013 T\u00fcrkiye set a new export record in 2025 with $273.4 billion<\/b><\/p>

https:\/\/tim.org.tr\/en\/turkiye-set-a-new-export-record-in-2025-with-2734-billion<\/em><\/a><\/h6>

T\u00dc\u0130K \u2013 Foreign Trade Statistics (\u043f\u0440\u0438\u043c\u0435\u0440: October 2025)<\/b><\/p>

https:\/\/data.tuik.gov.tr\/Bulten\/Index?dil=2&p=Foreign-Trade-Statistics-October-2025-53907<\/em><\/a><\/h6>

OECD \u2013 Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor (state of play, 2025)<\/b><\/p>

https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/publications\/enhancing-the-competitiveness-of-the-trans-caspian-transport-corridor-in-central-asia_f261e7fa-en\/full-report\/tctc-state-of-play-challenges-and-policy-considerations_b8a252b7.html<\/em><\/a><\/h6>

World Bank \u2013 Eastern T\u00fcrkiye Middle Corridor Railway Development Project (PDO document, PDF)<\/b><\/p>

https:\/\/documents1.worldbank.org\/curated\/en\/099092225112539558\/pdf\/P179128-d635001f-374a-4ba0-b11f-0f1c1f6929d7.pdf<\/em><\/a><\/h6>

Eurostat \u2013 EU trade with Russia (latest developments, PDF)<\/b><\/p>

https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/eurostat\/statistics-explained\/SEPDF\/cache\/104832.pdf<\/em><\/a><\/h6>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye: Avrupa-Rusya-Asya G\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar\u0131n\u0131n D\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm Noktas\u0131 Ocak 2026 G\u00fcncellemesi 1) T\u00fcrkiye-Avrupa ve T\u00fcrkiye-Rusya: tarife mant\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve ta\u015f\u0131ma ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u201cTarifeler\u201d konusunda \u00f6nemli bir not: a\u00e7\u0131k kaynaklarda \u00e7o\u011fu zaman tek bir standart fiyat yay\u0131mlanmaz. Ger\u00e7ekte maliyet yap\u0131s\u0131; ek \u00fccretler, sigorta ko\u015fullar\u0131, transit s\u00fcreleri, \u00fcr\u00fcn k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 ve uyum gereklilikleri \u00fczerinden \u015fekillenir. Bu nedenle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma, sonradan […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[101],"tags":[131,130],"class_list":["post-3173","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","tag-fiyat-dinamiklerini-analiz-ediyor-ve-sektorun-gorunumu-hakkinda-konusuyoruz","tag-uluslararasi-ticaret-ve-lojistigin-gelisimine-iliskin-yorumlar-ve-tahminler-bu-bolumde-guncel-egilimleri-ele-aliyoruz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/betainvest.ee\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3173","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/betainvest.ee\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/betainvest.ee\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/betainvest.ee\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/betainvest.ee\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3173"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/betainvest.ee\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3173\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7742,"href":"https:\/\/betainvest.ee\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3173\/revisions\/7742"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/betainvest.ee\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3173"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/betainvest.ee\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3173"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/betainvest.ee\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3173"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}